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SpaceX几乎腰斩！太空数据中心没戏了？错，真正玩家刚起步_我的网站

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A | Britain's opposition leader has reignited the row in his party over leaving the European Union (EU) by insisting he could fix problems in the withdrawal agreement.,Sir Keir Starmer declared his new-found support for Brexit on Monday evening in a speech to the pro-EU think tank the Centre for European Reform — which was long on platitudes but short on detail.,He said a future Labour government under his leadership would not apply to re-join either the bloc, its single market, customs union or free-movement area — a snub to both the Europhile and pro-immigration wings of his party.,Instead he claimed he would be able to succeed where Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government has so far failed and negotiate changes to the Northern Ireland Protocol that has seen Brussels impose customs checks on goods moving between the British mainland and the exclave.,"We must sort out the Northern Ireland protocol. If you’re going to make Brexit work, that has to be the starting point," Starmer said.,He said he had spoken to businesspeople in Belfast and Dublin who said could "make it work" as "the solutions are there, the desire is there".,"What is lacking is trust," Starmer claimed, insisting that "Labour will change that" and "be the honest broker our countries need".,That echoed arguments by the current and previous Tory governments during talks with the European Commission on the protocol that there were technological means to avoid customs checks at the land border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland — which were dismissed out of hand by Brussels negotiators.,But Starmer's speech put him at odds with prominent Remainers inside and outside Labour.,Mayor of London Sadiq Khan said re-joining the EU single market would make the UK "more prosperous".,"Keir’s job is to be leader of the Labour Party, my job is to be the Mayor of London. That’ll mean on many occasions I agree with the Labour Party, on some occasions I may disagree," Khan said. "Londoners elected me to be their champion, their advocate. I believe that our city and our country’s future is best served being members of the Single Market.",Khan is one of the favourites to replace Starmer if he fails to win the next election or is forced to honour his pledge to resign if he is fined over the 'Beergate' scandal. The Durham Constabulary is set to announce the findings of its investigation this week.,Walthamstow MP Stella Creasy, chairwoman of the pro-EU Labour Movement for Europe, said Starmer's speech "finally opens the door to a different future with Europe" and that Starmer should ensure "nothing is off the table".,"Labour must show it understands our national interest lies in working with, not shouting at, our European counterparts," Creasy tweeted.,© Stella Creasy MP/TwitterTweet by Labour Party Walthamstow MP Stella CreasyTweet by Labour Party Walthamstow MP Stella Creasy© Stella Creasy MP/Twitter,The Green Party's sole MP Caroline Lucas, a constant critic of Brexit, accused Starmer of being "dishonest".,"You can't just 'make Brexit work'," Lucas tweeted, "when it’s clearly doing such damage. Pretending #Brexit can be positive is dishonest, plays into hands of Govt & undermines national interest. Instead, admit this is about damage limitation — don’t falsely claim to 'make it work'.",In June, Labour shadow minister for victims and youth justice Anna McMorrin told an online party meeting of her "hope" that the UK would re-join the single market in future.,Rift Brews Within Labour Party Amid Keir Starmer's Attempt to Ban MPs From Rail Strikes22 June, 12:38 GMT,'Starmer Sutra',One guest on GB News on Tuesday question the sincerity of Starmer's Damascene conversion to Brexit, saying the Labour leader had had "more positions than the Karma Sutra" on the issue.,Has Sir Keir Starmer taken more positions on Brexit than the Kama Sutra?! pic.twitter.com/SyE2Oa1A0q— GB News (@GBNEWS) July 5, 2022,Left-wing media users pointed out that it was Starmer's call at the 2019 Labour conference to re-run the 2016 EU membership referendum that lost the party around 50 safe seats in the northern 'Red Wall' — which he was trying to woo back with his speech on Monday — and handed Johnson a landslide victory in the election two months later.,The very moment Dennis Skinner knew he would lose his seat in Parliament. Watch closely. pic.twitter.com/VCImhoXYjZ— Tory Fibs (@ToryFibs) July 4, 2022。本期要点：如何看懂科技产业你好，我是王煜全，这里是王煜全要闻评论。

B | SpaceX上市以来，股价剧烈波动，从最高的225美元一路跌到了现在的120美元上下。于是，市场上很多人开始讲，马斯克不顶用了，太空数据中心的故事是假的。

C | 马斯克顶不顶用，我们不知道，但我们今天要告诉你的是，太空数据中心这件事已经悄悄迈出了工程验证的一步。

D | 只不过，这个事的核心推动者不是SpaceX。这家公司叫Starcloud，在今年3月完成了1.7亿美元的融资，估值达到11亿美元，仅用17个月便成为了独角兽公司。

E | 在去年11月，他们发射了一颗60公斤级小卫星，里面搭载了一块数据中心级的英伟达H100。发射入轨后，这颗卫星便开始在轨运行谷歌的Gemma模型，并训练了一个小模型。当然，这只是一个在轨验证平台，并不是商业意义上的数据中心。它只是在验证，芯片能够经受发射震动，能够在太空辐射环境下执行推理和训练任务，从而为太空数据中心这个故事种下第一个有实证的种子。据称，他们的第二颗卫星将于10月发射，搭载英伟达B200芯片，目标是在太阳同步轨道全面运行。同时，值得一提的是，另一家名为Cowboy Space的公司，最早研究的是从太空向地面激光输电，也在近期把业务重点扩展到太空数据中心上，并在2026年5月完成了2.75亿美元的B轮融资，估值约20亿美元。他们已经向美国FCC（联邦通信委员会）申请部署2万颗数据中心卫星，并提出把火箭改造成一个集成式的数据中心，单颗卫星可搭载约800块AI芯片。但要注意的是，这些都是计划，他们的首颗卫星要到年底才发射。我们认为，这些进展值得大家关注，因为科技投资中，常见的两个错误就是把未来提前当成现在，或是因为问题太多就转身不看。 SpaceX的最大问题，不在于太空数据中心最终是否能成功，是他们至今也没做任何专门试验，却已经把故事讲到了百万颗卫星的量级。

F | 同时，真正要看的，其实是太空数据中心领域那些耐心推进、一步一个脚印的企业。第一块积木首先，太空数据中心理论上可行，工程上和商业上仍然处于凑积木的阶段。

G | 我们此前曾在特训营直播课中分析过，太空数据中心要能成为一个值得投资的项目，还需要凑齐6块积木。其中，4块是工程方面的积木，包括算力、供电、散热和通信；1块是建设方面的积木，就是太空算力中心的搭建；最后1块是商业的积木，即经济可行性。可以说，任何有关太空数据中心的分析都可以在这6块积木组成的框架下讨论。过去，太空数据中心的故事很热，但几乎所有故事的前提，都是这6块积木已经集齐了。可现实是，连半块积木都没有。什么时候能够实现，也是个未知数。如今，Starcloud终于给算力这块积木提供了第一个实物证据。

H | 但这距离实用还差很远。一块H100在轨道上跑起来了，只是一个起步。后续还要回答，多GPU集群能不能在太空长期协同稳定运行、芯片能不能在辐射环境下保持足够长的寿命、故障率和性能衰减究竟有多大等等。没动静可是，更关键的是，剩下5块积木还没动起来。供电方面，太空确实有充足的电，但太阳能板能否适配太空的光谱与辐射、光伏转换效率多高、是否需要储能、电力转换的损耗多大、长期辐射下的材料衰减多大等等，都没有进行过验证。还有散热问题，也还没开始解决。太空很冷，但太空是真空的，散热并不容易。地面数据中心靠空气和水的对流换热；在太空，只能靠辐射散热，也就意味着需要巨大的散热器。简单计算，一个1兆瓦级系统可能约5千多平方米的光伏阵列和约 2500 平方米的散热器。这意味着，要在太空组建数据中心，不只是发射芯片，这些配套设备也都得发射上天。

I | 当然，配套设备上天不会自动组装，让身着厚重太空服的宇航员完成组装任务难度有点儿大，而组装好了再发射，相信今天的龙飞船的运力也远远不够。

J | 然后，还要考虑通信问题。

K | 目前，太空到地面的通信带宽远低于地面，芯片之间如何协同、算完的数据和模型又如何传输到地面等等问题，都要解决。而最终，哪怕一个太空数据中心的试点项目真正运行起来了，你还得回答，经济上是否具有扩展性。也就是说，随着技术的发展、规模的扩大，建设和运行太空数据中心的成本是否能够持续降低，多久能降低到吸引真正的用户来签第一批商业合同。只有集齐了所有的这6块积木，也就是跨过了这6个门槛，你才能跟资本市场说你能赚钱。如何看科技产业但注意，我们不是在劝你不看太空数据中心。虽然只有一块H100上了太空，但科技的特点，就是昨天解决不了的问题，明天可能有人换一种方法解决。正确的态度不是盲目押注，更不是嘲笑，而是盯着。因为一旦6块积木真的被凑齐，那就是一个新产业的起点。如果你有相关的技术，自然可以作为早期参与者进行核心环节的创业。但作为投资者，别忘了，这个领域，可能十年后才有工程上的突破，二十年以后才在商业上可行，现在必然还不能把它当成已完成的事记入估值。原因也很简单，哪怕按5%的折现率算，十年以后的一个亿，折现到现在只值六千多万，二十年后的一个亿，只相当于现在的3千多万。这还只考虑了资金的时间成本，再考虑到从解决散热、供电、芯片、通信的难题，到降低发射和运维成本，其中还有巨大的不确定性，折现率还得大幅提升。所以，看科技产业，不是去赌那个终点有多大、什么时候到来；是跟看地图一样，搞清楚自己站在哪个坐标上，从而做出合理的判断和布局。

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Published on:22:11:12